Despite the humiliating rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, Britain is no closer to knowing the end result of its vote to leave the European Union
London - Despite the humiliating rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal, Britain is no closer to knowing the end result of its vote to leave the European Union.
A raft of amendments to be voted on by MPs on Tuesday threaten to further muddy the waters as the clock ticks down to Britain's scheduled departure from the EU on March 29.
Three ultimate scenarios remain -- leaving without an official deal, leaving with a very similar deal or no Brexit at all.
But each path is fraught with uncertainty, political volatility, constitutional logjams and an increasingly embittered electorate.
Timeline of key dates in Brexit process
A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU's economic growth. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
Brexit supporters are opposed to any delay in Britain's departure from the EU. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
British lawmakers fear cancelling Brexit could spark widespread public rage. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
Britain's opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants Theresa May to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
David Cameron gives a speech saying he would be in favour of a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
The Conservatives win an overall majority. One of their key election pledges was a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
David Cameron announces the EU referendum will be held on June 23, 2016. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Mayor of London Boris Johnson says he will back the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Voters are asked 'Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?' 'Britain narrowly votes to end its membership of the EU by 52% to 48%. Photo: Adrian Dennis / AFP
UKIP leader Nigel Farage tells supporters "Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom" after the shock Brexit result. Photo: Geoff Caddick / AFP
The shock result to leave the EU prompts the resignation of David Cameron. Photo: Odd Andersen / AFP
Theresa May, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU, replaces Cameron. Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
Theresa May says Britain will leave the single market to control EU immigration. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
Britain formally launches two-year exit process from the EU. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP
In a bid to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations, May calls a snap general election for June 8. Photo: Daniel Sorabji / AFP
Theresa May's election gamble backfires as the ruling Conservatives lose their overall majority in the House of Commons. Photo: Geoff Caddick / AFP
The UK's chief Brexit negotiator David Davis meets his EU counterpart Michel Barnier for talks in Brussels. Photo: John Thys / AFP
Theresa May strikes a deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
The two sides agree on several key issues: Britain's financial settlement to the union, citizens' rights and the Irish border. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
The government's key #Brexit legislation receives royal assent, allowing EU legislation to be transferred into the UK statute books. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign after they object to May's strategy for closer ties with the EU. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
The draft divorce agreement is published. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
Four ministers, including new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, quit in protest at the withdrawal agreement. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
EU leaders approve the accord. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP
Anger over the "backstop" in the withdrawal accord prompts enough Conservative MPs to trigger a confidence vote in May's leadership. She wins by 200 to 117 votes. Photo: Daniel Sorabji / AFP
The House of Commons overwhelmingly votes by 432 to 202 to reject the EU withdrawal agreement. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn calls a vote of no confidence in the government. May's administration wins by 325 to 306 votes. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
House of Commons is scheduled to vote on May's 'Plan B' and consider alternative options, including a second referendum or delaying Brexit. Photot: Adrian Dennis / AFP
Big Ben might be muted whilst it undergoes repairs but the Brexit clock is still ticking and the UK scheduled to leave the EU at 11pm (UK time). Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
Here are the potential next steps:
- No deal -
Britain is legally on track to leave the EU with or without a deal on March 29, unless it delays or stops the process.
A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU's economic growth, as well as causing significant legal disruption.
The world's fifth-biggest economy could lose preferential access to its largest export market overnight, affecting every sector, leading to rising costs and disruption at British ports.
As D-Day looms, the government has conducted visible displays of its ramped-up no-deal preparations over the past few weeks.
But speculation is growing that the government, under pressure from parliament, could seek to delay the process and take no-deal off the table.
A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU's economic growth. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
- Delay -
Some amendments introduced in parliament are seeking to delay Britain's departure date, although all the other 27 EU countries would have to agree.
A potential complication is that elections to the European Parliament are due in late May and the new chamber is set to sit on July 2. Some of Britain's 73 seats have already been reallocated.
A delay to give May time to pass legislation enshrining her Brexit deal would likely command widespread support, said leading pollster John Curtice.
But Brexit supporters would be deeply opposed to a delay motivated by a desire "to go away and have a referendum or a general election or softer Brexit", he added.
Brussels also may not be so keen if the delay would simply translate into more months of political gridlock.
Brexit supporters are opposed to any delay in Britain's departure from the EU. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
- Second referendum -
Growing numbers of MPs are seeking a new referendum to reverse the 2016 result, when the Leave campaign won by 52 percent to 48 percent.
But supporters admit they do not currently have the numbers in parliament to make it happen.
No law prevents Britain from doing it all over again, but many question whether a revote would be democratic -- or resolve anything.
May has warned that another vote "would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics".
It also threatens to be just as divisive as the last one, with opinion polls showing the country is still split over the issue.
British lawmakers fear cancelling Brexit could spark widespread public rage. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
- Try to get another deal -
After MPs overwhelmingly rejected the deal agreed between May and Brussels, May held talks with lawmakers across parliament as well as business figures and trade unions to try to find a way through.
The key sticking point is the deal's "backstop" solution to keep the Irish border open, which has the potential to leave Britain indefinitely tied to some form of EU customs union.
Influential Brexit supporters say that with changes to the backstop, they could support the agreement.
EU leaders have said they are willing to talk further, including on plans for the future trading relationship, but have repeatedly said they do not want to reopen the deal itself.
Brexit in 12 graphics
A no-deal scenario threatens to trigger a recession in Britain and markedly slow the EU's economic growth. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
Brexit supporters are opposed to any delay in Britain's departure from the EU. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
British lawmakers fear cancelling Brexit could spark widespread public rage. Photo: Tolga Akmen / AFP
Britain's opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants Theresa May to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
David Cameron gives a speech saying he would be in favour of a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
The Conservatives win an overall majority. One of their key election pledges was a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
David Cameron announces the EU referendum will be held on June 23, 2016. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Mayor of London Boris Johnson says he will back the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Voters are asked 'Should the UK remain a member of the EU or leave the EU?' 'Britain narrowly votes to end its membership of the EU by 52% to 48%. Photo: Adrian Dennis / AFP
UKIP leader Nigel Farage tells supporters "Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom" after the shock Brexit result. Photo: Geoff Caddick / AFP
The shock result to leave the EU prompts the resignation of David Cameron. Photo: Odd Andersen / AFP
Theresa May, who campaigned for Britain to stay in the EU, replaces Cameron. Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
Theresa May says Britain will leave the single market to control EU immigration. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
Britain formally launches two-year exit process from the EU. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP
In a bid to strengthen her hand in Brexit negotiations, May calls a snap general election for June 8. Photo: Daniel Sorabji / AFP
Theresa May's election gamble backfires as the ruling Conservatives lose their overall majority in the House of Commons. Photo: Geoff Caddick / AFP
The UK's chief Brexit negotiator David Davis meets his EU counterpart Michel Barnier for talks in Brussels. Photo: John Thys / AFP
Theresa May strikes a deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
The two sides agree on several key issues: Britain's financial settlement to the union, citizens' rights and the Irish border. Photo: Daniel Leal-Olivas / AFP
The government's key #Brexit legislation receives royal assent, allowing EU legislation to be transferred into the UK statute books. Photo: Niklas Halle'n / AFP
Brexit Secretary David Davis and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resign after they object to May's strategy for closer ties with the EU. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
The draft divorce agreement is published. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
Four ministers, including new Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab, quit in protest at the withdrawal agreement. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
EU leaders approve the accord. Photo: Emmanuel Dunand / AFP
Anger over the "backstop" in the withdrawal accord prompts enough Conservative MPs to trigger a confidence vote in May's leadership. She wins by 200 to 117 votes. Photo: Daniel Sorabji / AFP
The House of Commons overwhelmingly votes by 432 to 202 to reject the EU withdrawal agreement. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn calls a vote of no confidence in the government. May's administration wins by 325 to 306 votes. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
House of Commons is scheduled to vote on May's 'Plan B' and consider alternative options, including a second referendum or delaying Brexit. Photot: Adrian Dennis / AFP
Big Ben might be muted whilst it undergoes repairs but the Brexit clock is still ticking and the UK scheduled to leave the EU at 11pm (UK time). Photo: Justin Tallis / AFP
- General election -
Opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn sought to oust May's government by calling a confidence vote after her Brexit deal was defeated, but she won.
There is a risk that her Conservative party and their Northern Irish allies, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), could turn against her if she pursues either a "softer" or a no-deal Brexit.
But if not, the only other way to force an election is for the prime minister herself to gamble and call a snap vote to break the impasse.
Britain's opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn wants Theresa May to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. Photo: Ben Stansall / AFP
- No Brexit -
Some lawmakers favour the nuclear option of cancelling Brexit altogether, despite the threat of widespread public rage.
Finance minister Philip Hammond even told business leaders last week that Article 50 could be rescinded.
How does a country leave the EU?
By James Pheby
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