For a long time, the polar bear was one of the symbols of the climate crisis. They were made emblematic in 2006 when Time Magazine put a photo of a polar bear surrounded by melting ice on its cover next to the words: “Be worried, be very worried”. 

For a while, there was good reason for this association. Polar bears depend on their icy Arctic habitats to hunt their main prey: ice seals. And that habitat is warming up faster than other parts of the planet - with some estimates putting it at two to four times faster. 

But surprisingly, some polar bears seem to be healthier now than they were a couple of decades ago - appearing to be benefiting, at least temporarily, from the effects of climate change. 

One place where this is being studied is the Norwegian archipelago, Svalbard. 

Better off ‘than we had feared’

“What we see in Svalbard also means that bears could potentially do better in other areas of the Arctic than we had feared,” said Jon Aars, a senior researcher at the Norwegian Polar Institute. 

Between 1995 and 2019, Aars has been part of a team that analysed 770 adult polar bears. 

In a study published in January of this year, researchers revealed that the bears’ body condition index (BCI) fell until the year 2000, as rising Arctic air temperatures have been causing the ice to melt at an alarming rate. 

But after that year, the animals’ BCI actually increased, meaning some bears are fatter now than those at the beginning of the study. 

‘Climate winners’ 

One reason for this is that polar bears in the Barents Sea - where Svalbard is located - have access to more food now than they did in the early 1990s. 

Hunting regulations implemented decades ago have better protected some of their new prey, such as Svalbard reindeer and walruses. The number of both species then increased, providing much-needed calories to polar bears. 

Rising temperatures have also meant longer summers in this region, helping reindeer thrive. 

“If you get longer summers with more grass growing, reindeer will be happy,” Aars said. “So reindeer might be climate winners, unless they get eaten by polar bears.” 

Some polar bears might also soon get access to more territory to roam as more ice melts, according to Aars. 

“There are parts of the Arctic where it's actually hard to be a polar bear because it's too much ice, very, very thick ice,” he said. 

“It's difficult for seals to be there, and there is very little food there. But in 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years it might be better to be a polar bear (there).”  

‘Pessimistic’ in the long run

However, this positive effect is probably only temporary. 

According to the World Wildlife Fund, this loss of ice could result in the extinction of polar bears by 2100, except for some small groups living in the high Arctic. 

Aars also stressed this, saying that while his team’s study is ultimately “good news that they still do well despite the challenges”, he is “pessimistic” in the long run about polar bears' chances of survival. 

“I do think that they will do worse at some point, and I do think this will be due to climate change,” he said. 

In some regions, polar bear numbers are already decreasing. 

The population dropped by 27 percent in just five years in Canada’s Western Hudson Bay, according to Polar Bears International, citing a 2021 study. 

Polar bear numbers in the Beaufort Sea also fell by 40 percent between 2001 and 2010. 

Watch the video to learn more.