Opinion polls have pointed to a victory for the centre-left opposition headed by the Social Democrats.

But Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's centre-right coalition and its parliamentary ally, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, have narrowed the gap in the final weeks of campaigning and the election could go down to the wire, experts say.

"There's still a bit of suspense. But all the polls have for a long time shown a very large lead and it's usually difficult to make up that much ground," Stockholm University political scientist Jan Teorell told AFP.

Three polls in the past week credited the four parties on the left with around 50 percent, and the four on the right with around 47 percent.

The right-wing bloc has vowed to pursue its crackdown on crime and immigration, after years of shootings and bombings linked to organised crime networks.

But the bloc has failed to muster the momentum that swept it to power four years ago.

"It came to power very much on a programme to bring down crime and energy prices. And crime and petrol prices have come down, so those issues no longer top voters' agendas," Teorell said. 

Filip Lundin, a 35-year-old businessman, told AFP the government had done "a really good job", with "less shootings, better control of where society is going (and) our economy is growing."

Who is promising what ?

The left has vowed to raise taxes on banks and high incomes to invest in healthcare and schools, and help struggling households face rising costs amid growing economic inequality.

That appeals to 46-year-old Hanna Justine Hallbo who works in fashion.

"Healthcare and the social security system must be improved. That has gone down in the last couple of years."

Opposition leader Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats, Sweden's biggest party, told AFP the election was "about what country Sweden should be."

Voters were faced with the choice of "a Sweden that is more like Sweden, where people have a job and where we can improve our welfare", or "a completely different country with a government dominated by Sweden Democrats, a far-right party founded by neo-Nazis."

Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, who in 2021-2022 was the first woman to serve as Swedish prime minister, is a hard-nosed technocrat schooled in finance with a reputation for being impatient, blunt and frugal.

The 59-year-old is hoping to oust Kristersson with pledges to strengthen the country's welfare state.

She has led the Social Democrats since November 2021, when she took over the party leadership from Stefan Lofven.

Her no-nonsense and pragmatic attitude appeals to many Swedes, according to political scientist Teorell.

While she is nicknamed "The Bulldozer" for her direct manner, "she has a way of speaking that many people feel they can trust," Teorell told AFP.

"There are similarities to (former German chancellor Angela) Merkel. I think Merkel has been a bit of a role model for her."

Andersson served as finance minister for seven years before becoming prime minister.

In 10 months, she guided Sweden through a period of turbulent domestic politics, the Covid pandemic and led the charge for the country's historic application to join NATO, before losing the 2022 election to Kristersson.

In this year's election campaign, she has vowed to raise taxes to improve healthcare and the welfare system, ban profits at privately-run, publicly-funded schools, and maintain most of the right-wing government's hardline policies on crime and immigration.

The only daughter of a university professor and a teacher, she studied at the Stockholm School of Economics -- with a brief spell at Harvard -- before immersing herself in the Social Democratic party, having joined its youth league aged 16.

The far right, the second-biggest party with around 20 percent of votes, is hoping to enter government for the first time.

The populist party has promised Swedes the lowest gas prices and migration in Europe, and dental care reform.

Kristersson became prime minister in 2022 after his minority coalition reached an unprecedented agreement with the Sweden Democrats, giving the former political pariahs significant influence over government policy, especially crime and immigration, in exchange for its support.

He has promised the far right cabinet posts, including the migration portfolio, if re-elected.

"He has a unifying presence on the right. I think people see him as a reliable candidate for prime minister," Teorell told AFP.

While the arrangement with the far right secured power for Kristersson's Moderate Party, it has also hurt them in opinion polls, Teorell said, noting that it began losing voter support after just a few months.

A Tintin fan with a degree in economics, Kristersson has as prime minister overseen increased defence spending, strict migration policies and a crackdown on organised crime.

He has also been embroiled in several scandals, including scrutiny over a foundation run by his wife, Lutheran priest Birgitta Ed, and the hiring of a childhood friend to serve as national security advisor.

Born in the southern Swedish city of Lund in 1963, Kristersson entered politics as a teen, taking over the Moderates youth wing a few years later. 

Considered a skilled debater, he became party leader in 2017.

Far right in government?

Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson insists his party should hold several key portfolios, but he is not vying for Kristersson's job -- yet.

"There will be more elections to come, so I'd like to aim for the post of prime minister in 2030 or later," he told AFP in August.

As leader of the Sweden Democrats for more than 20 years, Jimmie Akesson has transformed the far-right party with neo-Nazi roots from a political pariah to heavyweight contender whose support is key for the right wing to secure power.

Since 2022, when the minority right-wing government has ruled with the far right's support, Akesson has succeeded in imposing his hardline policies on migration and crime.

The party entered parliament in 2010 and now has around 20 percent of voter support. 

With immigration drastically reduced, the far right's focus is now on "re-migration", or incentivising immigrants to leave Sweden.

Born in Solvesborg, a town of 9,000 inhabitants in southern Sweden, Akesson, 47, is from a middle-class family with an entrepreneur father and a nursing assistant mother, part of the "average Swede" image he is keen to cultivate.

A fan of rock music and "pizza with fries", he has worked hard to normalise the far right.

In late June 2025, the party released a lengthy report on its origins, detailing its past ties with fascist and Nazi organisations and members' xenophobic and antisemitic views.

Akesson apologised on behalf of the party, though he still promotes nationalist ideology. In March, he said in an interview with broadcaster SVT that a practising Muslim in Sweden could not be Swedish. 

In another SVT interview last month, he said he wanted to "restore order to Sweden's demography".

Security

Just over a week before the election, extremism watchdog Expo revealed that a Sweden Democrat civil servant in parliament had shared pro-Russian propaganda for years. 

Kristersson, dogged by scandals during his term, reacted sharply.

"We are in the middle of a European war," he told daily Aftonbladet.

"You can't have people who spread pro-Russian narratives working in parliament."

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Sweden has joined NATO and is massively rearming and boosting civil preparedness. 

The government said on Monday September 6 that the country would spend seven billion kronor ($730 million) to buy US-made HIMARS rocket artillery for it military.

President Emmanuel Macron on Monday August 31 oversaw the signing of a 4.3-billion-euro ($4.9 billion) deal for Sweden to buy four French frigates as Paris and Stockholm seek to tighten cooperation against a backdrop of growing Russian threats.

Stockholm has blamed Moscow for cyberattacks, disinformation and intelligence operations, as well as drone and jet incidents over the Baltic.

There is broad consensus between the government and opposition on NATO and defence issues, and no major policy changes are expected if Sweden pivots to a left-wing government, Teorell predicted. 

"But there would be higher taxes and more investment in the welfare system," Teorell said. 

Leading industrialist Jacob Wallenberg told the Financial Times he was "deeply concerned" about what that would mean for the thriving tech sector.

With the right-wing bloc trailing in the polls and the four left-wing parties splintered ideologically, thorny negotiations may be needed to form a government.